AI job replacement tracker: what the data shows (charts)
Nobody counts jobs replaced by AI. Here is what is measured instead, labelled by what each number really is.
What the data says so far
The data does not yet show AI replacing jobs on a large scale. Some things are rising: AI use by firms, and job cuts where employers named AI. One payroll study finds young workers in the most AI-exposed jobs falling behind their peers. But broad measures show no clear replacement effect yet.
- Rising: 23.8% of US firms used AI in the last two weeks (Sept 2026). AI-cited job-cut announcements rose from 12,742 in 2024 to 54,836 in 2025.
- Lagging: in one large payroll sample, the Stanford Digital Economy Lab and ADP find employment of 22–25-year-olds in the most AI-exposed jobs falling behind young workers in less exposed jobs. We don't chart it yet (see T1).
- Not visible yet: only 2% of AI-using US firms say AI cut their headcount (2.3% say it grew). California's share of unemployment claims from highly exposed jobs is about flat since 2023 (same month each year). Yale's comparison of exposed and similar unexposed workers finds no clear difference.
Exposure is not replacement · announcements are not confirmed layoffs
Four numbers, and what kind each one is
What the type labels mean
- Data type: Exposure estimate
- Can show: How much of a job's tasks AI could do or help with. Can't show: That those jobs will go, or have gone.
- Data type: Adoption survey
- Can show: How many firms use AI, and what they say it did. Can't show: What actually happened to jobs across the economy.
- Data type: Layoff announcements
- Can show: Cuts where employers named AI as a reason. Can't show: Whether AI caused them, or how many happened.
- Data type: Jobs data, exposed vs others
- Can show: How hiring, employment or claims moved in AI-exposed jobs compared with less exposed ones. Can't show: That AI caused the difference.
- Data type: Jobs data, context
- Can show: How a group of workers is doing overall. Can't show: Anything about AI: it is not split by AI exposure.
- Data type: Forecast
- Can show: What employers or statisticians expect. Can't show: What has happened.
Global: exposure, expectations, adoption and announcements
How much of the world's work is exposed to AI, by country income
Share of jobs with tasks generative AI could affect (ILO 2025 index): high-income countries 34%, low-income countries 11%, world 24%. The IMF's broader AI index puts it at about 60% of jobs in advanced economies, 40% in emerging markets and 26% in low-income countries, and splits them into jobs AI may help (high complementarity) and jobs where AI may reduce demand (low complementarity).
Caveat. Exposure means some tasks could change. It is not a count of jobs lost or a forecast. The ILO and IMF use different indexes with different methods: compare within one panel, not across them.
Show the numbers (ILO)
| group | exposed % | gradient 1 | gradient 2 | gradient 3 | gradient 4 (highest) | jobs (m) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 24 | 7.4 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 838 |
| High income | 34 | 5.9 | 10.6 | 11 | 6.3 | 235 |
| Upper-middle income | 25 | 9.2 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 334 |
| Lower-middle income | 20 | 6.8 | 9.3 | n/a | n/a | 240 |
| Low income | 11 | 5.3 | n/a | n/a | n/a | 29 |
Show the numbers (IMF)
| group | exposed % | high complementarity % | low complementarity % |
|---|---|---|---|
| World | 40 | n/a | n/a |
| Advanced economies | 60 | 27 | 33 |
| Emerging market economies | 40 | 16 | 24 |
| Low-income countries | 26 | 8 | 18 |
Employers' own forecast: jobs created and displaced, 2025–2030
Over 1,000 employers surveyed by the World Economic Forum expect 170 million jobs created and 92 million displaced worldwide by 2030, for all reasons combined (net 78 million). For AI and information processing alone they expect 11 million created and 9 million displaced.
Caveat. What employers expect, not what happened. The totals cover all trends, not AI alone, and are measured against about 1.2 billion formal jobs, not all work worldwide.
Show the numbers
| what | million jobs |
|---|---|
| All trends: created | 170 |
| All trends: displaced | 92 |
| All trends: net | 78 |
| AI and information processing: created | 11 |
| AI and information processing: displaced | 9 |
| AI and information processing: net, as WEF reports it | 1.8 |
Show net jobs for the top 5 trends
| trend | net million jobs |
|---|---|
| Broadening digital access | 9.9 |
| Growing working-age populations | 9.1 |
| Increased efforts and investments to adapt to climate change | 5.5 |
| Increased focus on labour and social issues | 5.2 |
| Ageing and declining working-age populations | 3.8 |
How fast firms are adopting AI
Share of US firms using AI rose from 3.7% (Sept 2023) to 10% (Sept 2025) under the old question, and is 23.8% (Sept 2026) under Census's broader new question. In the EU, 20% of firms with 10 or more staff used AI in 2025.
Caveat. Use is not replacement. The Census question changed in Nov 2025, so the two lines can't be joined; no data was collected in autumn 2025 because of the federal shutdown.
Show the numbers (US)
| period ending | question | % of firms |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-10 | old | 3.7 |
| 2023-09-24 | old | 3.7 |
| 2023-10-08 | old | 3.8 |
| 2023-10-22 | old | 3.9 |
| 2023-11-05 | old | 4.4 |
| 2023-11-19 | old | 4.6 |
| 2023-12-03 | old | 4.9 |
| 2023-12-17 | old | 4.9 |
| 2023-12-31 | old | 4.6 |
| 2024-01-14 | old | 5.3 |
| 2024-01-28 | old | 5 |
| 2024-02-11 | old | 5.4 |
| 2024-02-25 | old | 4.3 |
| 2024-03-10 | old | 4.4 |
| 2024-03-24 | old | 4.2 |
| 2024-04-07 | old | 4.8 |
| 2024-04-21 | old | 4.7 |
| 2024-05-05 | old | 4.8 |
| 2024-05-19 | old | 4.6 |
| 2024-06-02 | old | 5 |
| 2024-06-16 | old | 4.7 |
| 2024-06-30 | old | 5 |
| 2024-07-14 | old | 5.1 |
| 2024-07-28 | old | 5.1 |
| 2024-08-11 | old | 5.5 |
| 2024-08-25 | old | 5.7 |
| 2024-09-08 | old | 5.9 |
| 2024-09-22 | old | 6 |
| 2024-10-06 | old | 6 |
| 2024-10-20 | old | 6 |
| 2024-11-03 | old | 6.1 |
| 2024-11-17 | old | 6.1 |
| 2024-12-01 | old | 6.1 |
| 2024-12-15 | old | 6.3 |
| 2024-12-29 | old | 6 |
| 2025-01-12 | old | 6.7 |
| 2025-01-26 | old | 6.8 |
| 2025-02-09 | old | 7.3 |
| 2025-02-23 | old | 7.4 |
| 2025-03-09 | old | 7.8 |
| 2025-03-23 | old | 8 |
| 2025-04-06 | old | 8.3 |
| 2025-04-20 | old | 8.7 |
| 2025-05-04 | old | 8.7 |
| 2025-05-18 | old | 9.2 |
| 2025-06-01 | old | 9.2 |
| 2025-06-15 | old | 9.3 |
| 2025-06-29 | old | 9.3 |
| 2025-07-13 | old | 9.4 |
| 2025-07-27 | old | 8.8 |
| 2025-08-10 | old | 9.7 |
| 2025-08-24 | old | 9.1 |
| 2025-09-07 | old | 9.9 |
| 2025-09-21 | old | 10 |
| 2025-11-16 | new | 17.3 |
| 2025-11-30 | new | 17.2 |
| 2025-12-14 | new | 17.8 |
| 2025-12-28 | new | 17.7 |
| 2026-01-11 | new | 18.2 |
| 2026-01-25 | new | 18.9 |
| 2026-02-08 | new | 17.5 |
| 2026-02-22 | new | 18.2 |
| 2026-03-08 | new | 18.9 |
| 2026-03-22 | new | 19.1 |
| 2026-04-05 | new | 19.8 |
| 2026-04-19 | new | 19.8 |
| 2026-05-03 | new | 19.5 |
| 2026-05-17 | new | 20.6 |
| 2026-05-31 | new | 20.6 |
| 2026-06-14 | new | 20.6 |
| 2026-06-28 | new | 21.7 |
| 2026-07-12 | new | 21.5 |
| 2026-07-26 | new | 21.8 |
| 2026-08-09 | new | 22.4 |
| 2026-08-23 | new | 23.2 |
| 2026-09-06 | new | 23.8 |
| 2026-09-20 | new | 23.8 |
Show the numbers (EU)
| year | % of firms (10+ staff) |
|---|---|
| 2021 | 7.65 |
| 2023 | 8.06 |
| 2024 | 13.48 |
| 2025 | 19.95 |
Job cuts where US employers named AI, by month
AI-cited cuts were near zero for much of 2024 and early 2025, peaked at 38,579 in May 2026, and were 3,961 in Sept 2026. Totals: 4,247 in 2023 (May–Dec 2023 only), 12,742 in 2024, 54,836 in 2025, 120,136 in 2026 (Jan–Sep).
Caveat. Announcements, not confirmed layoffs. Firms may over- or under-claim AI, and some AI-related cuts are filed under other reasons such as 'technological update'. A question mark marks a month with no figure found, not zero.
Show the numbers
| month | AI-cited cuts | all announced cuts | AI share % (ours) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05 | 3,900 | 80,089 | 4.9 |
| 2023-06 | 7 | 40,709 | 0 |
| 2023-07 | 60 | 23,697 | 0.3 |
| 2023-08 | 0 | 75,151 | 0 |
| 2023-09 | 30 | 47,457 | 0.1 |
| 2023-10 | 100 | 36,836 | 0.3 |
| 2023-11 | not found | 45,510 | n/a |
| 2023-12 | 150 | 34,817 | 0.4 |
| 2024-01 | 381 | 82,307 | 0.5 |
| 2024-02 | 2 | 84,638 | 0 |
| 2024-03 | 0 | 90,309 | 0 |
| 2024-04 | 800 | 64,789 | 1.2 |
| 2024-05 | 0 | 63,816 | 0 |
| 2024-06 | 0 | 48,786 | 0 |
| 2024-07 | 0 | 25,885 | 0 |
| 2024-08 | 5,943 | 75,891 | 7.8 |
| 2024-09 | 5,616 | 72,821 | 7.7 |
| 2024-10 | 0 | 55,597 | 0 |
| 2024-11 | 0 | 57,727 | 0 |
| 2024-12 | 0 | 38,792 | 0 |
| 2025-01 | 0 | 49,795 | 0 |
| 2025-02 | 0 | 172,017 | 0 |
| 2025-03 | 0 | 275,240 | 0 |
| 2025-04 | 0 | 105,441 | 0 |
| 2025-05 | 0 | 93,816 | 0 |
| 2025-06 | 75 | 47,999 | 0.2 |
| 2025-07 | 10,300 | 62,075 | 16.6 |
| 2025-08 | 0 | 85,979 | 0 |
| 2025-09 | 7,000 | 54,064 | 12.9 |
| 2025-10 | 31,039 | 153,074 | 20.3 |
| 2025-11 | 6,280 | 71,321 | 8.8 |
| 2025-12 | 142 | 35,553 | 0.4 |
| 2026-01 | 7,624 | 108,435 | 7 |
| 2026-02 | 4,680 | 48,307 | 9.7 |
| 2026-03 | 15,341 | 60,620 | 25.3 |
| 2026-04 | 21,490 | 83,387 | 25.8 |
| 2026-05 | 38,579 | 97,006 | 39.8 |
| 2026-06 | 14,029 | 45,849 | 30.6 |
| 2026-07 | 10,970 | 33,429 | 32.8 |
| 2026-08 | 3,462 | 52,881 | 6.5 |
| 2026-09 | 3,961 | 43,281 | 9.2 |
By age and education
Young vs experienced workers in the most and least AI-exposed jobs (US)
Not shown yet. The Stanford Digital Economy Lab / ADP payroll series for this chart is not shown while we ask for permission to republish it.
In their payroll data, employment of 22–25-year-olds in the most AI-exposed jobs has fallen behind that of young workers in the least exposed jobs, which the authors call early, descriptive indicators, not causal estimates. See the original dashboard.
California unemployment claims from the most AI-exposed jobs
Share of California's new unemployment claims that come from the most AI-exposed quarter of occupations. Observed-exposure measure, same month each year: 37.6% in Aug 2019, 33% in Aug 2020, 37.6% in Aug 2021, 38.3% in Aug 2022, 41.1% in Aug 2023, 40.7% in Aug 2024, 40.7% in Aug 2025, 40.5% in Aug 2026.
Caveat. Claims from people who filed for unemployment, not seasonally adjusted, and may be revised. The state says the tracker cannot show that AI caused any layoff. The top quarter is cut on exposure scores, so its share of claims is not expected to be 25%.
Show the numbers
| month | observed measure % | potential measure % |
|---|---|---|
| 2019-01 | 34.2 | 28.3 |
| 2019-02 | 33.8 | 27.7 |
| 2019-03 | 34.5 | 28.2 |
| 2019-04 | 35.1 | 28.7 |
| 2019-05 | 37.5 | 29.8 |
| 2019-06 | 38.5 | 27.5 |
| 2019-07 | 37.2 | 29.1 |
| 2019-08 | 37.6 | 29.9 |
| 2019-09 | 37.8 | 30.2 |
| 2019-10 | 33.7 | 27.2 |
| 2019-11 | 30.8 | 24.8 |
| 2019-12 | 31.2 | 23.9 |
| 2020-01 | 31.8 | 25.9 |
| 2020-02 | 34.2 | 28 |
| 2020-03 | 31.2 | 25.4 |
| 2020-04 | 34.3 | 28.5 |
| 2020-05 | 38.5 | 29.7 |
| 2020-06 | 35.7 | 26.3 |
| 2020-07 | 33.8 | 24.9 |
| 2020-08 | 33 | 24.9 |
| 2020-09 | 32.2 | 24.5 |
| 2020-10 | 35.8 | 26.9 |
| 2020-11 | 34.7 | 25.7 |
| 2020-12 | 33.3 | 23.7 |
| 2021-01 | 33.7 | 25.1 |
| 2021-02 | 35.1 | 25.8 |
| 2021-03 | 36.9 | 27.8 |
| 2021-04 | 36.3 | 26.8 |
| 2021-05 | 36.4 | 26.3 |
| 2021-06 | 38.2 | 25.7 |
| 2021-07 | 37.1 | 25.7 |
| 2021-08 | 37.6 | 26.3 |
| 2021-09 | 31.9 | 23.1 |
| 2021-10 | 31.9 | 23.5 |
| 2021-11 | 32 | 23.3 |
| 2021-12 | 32.7 | 23.4 |
| 2022-01 | 31.3 | 23.3 |
| 2022-02 | 34 | 25.4 |
| 2022-03 | 35 | 26.3 |
| 2022-04 | 35.9 | 27.1 |
| 2022-05 | 40.9 | 31.5 |
| 2022-06 | 43.2 | 31.4 |
| 2022-07 | 39.3 | 29.3 |
| 2022-08 | 38.3 | 30.7 |
| 2022-09 | 38.8 | 30.3 |
| 2022-10 | 36.5 | 28.9 |
| 2022-11 | 33.9 | 27.2 |
| 2022-12 | 35.2 | 27.2 |
| 2023-01 | 34.1 | 28.1 |
| 2023-02 | 36.6 | 30.3 |
| 2023-03 | 36 | 29.7 |
| 2023-04 | 38.4 | 31.4 |
| 2023-05 | 40.7 | 33.3 |
| 2023-06 | 43.1 | 32.4 |
| 2023-07 | 41.4 | 33.2 |
| 2023-08 | 41.1 | 33.4 |
| 2023-09 | 40.5 | 33.2 |
| 2023-10 | 38.2 | 31.5 |
| 2023-11 | 34.5 | 28.4 |
| 2023-12 | 36.2 | 28.2 |
| 2024-01 | 36.1 | 29.7 |
| 2024-02 | 36.3 | 30.1 |
| 2024-03 | 37.9 | 31 |
| 2024-04 | 38.3 | 31.6 |
| 2024-05 | 40.8 | 32.1 |
| 2024-06 | 43.1 | 30 |
| 2024-07 | 41 | 31.1 |
| 2024-08 | 40.7 | 32.3 |
| 2024-09 | 40.1 | 31.3 |
| 2024-10 | 37.4 | 30 |
| 2024-11 | 34.7 | 27.4 |
| 2024-12 | 35.8 | 26.7 |
| 2025-01 | 35.2 | 28.1 |
| 2025-02 | 36.7 | 29.7 |
| 2025-03 | 37.2 | 29.8 |
| 2025-04 | 38.4 | 30.9 |
| 2025-05 | 40.6 | 31.5 |
| 2025-06 | 42.7 | 29.1 |
| 2025-07 | 41 | 30.7 |
| 2025-08 | 40.7 | 31.6 |
| 2025-09 | 39.5 | 31.1 |
| 2025-10 | 37.2 | 30.2 |
| 2025-11 | 34.5 | 27.1 |
| 2025-12 | 36.4 | 26.9 |
| 2026-01 | 35.8 | 28.5 |
| 2026-02 | 36.1 | 28.7 |
| 2026-03 | 38.2 | 30.1 |
| 2026-04 | 38.5 | 30.7 |
| 2026-05 | 40.7 | 31.5 |
| 2026-06 | 43 | 29 |
| 2026-07 | 41.7 | 31.2 |
| 2026-08 | 40.5 | 31.2 |
Recent college graduates vs all workers: unemployment (US)
Unemployment of recent graduates (22–27) was 5.7% in Jun 2026, against 4.1% for all workers. By major in 2024: computer science 7%, computer engineering 7.8%, all majors 4.2%.
Caveat. Not an AI measure. Graduates' unemployment has been above the overall rate in good years too; this shows the entry-level squeeze, not its cause.
Show the numbers (monthly)
| month | recent grads % | all workers % | all college grads % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-01 | 4.047 | 3.729 | 2.386 |
| 2019-02 | 3.838 | 3.757 | 2.332 |
| 2019-03 | 3.6 | 3.748 | 2.227 |
| 2019-04 | 3.471 | 3.603 | 2.13 |
| 2019-05 | 4.131 | 3.554 | 2.167 |
| 2019-06 | 4.268 | 3.513 | 2.218 |
| 2019-07 | 4.579 | 3.602 | 2.294 |
| 2019-08 | 4.163 | 3.607 | 2.293 |
| 2019-09 | 4.047 | 3.584 | 2.276 |
| 2019-10 | 3.776 | 3.503 | 2.219 |
| 2019-11 | 3.476 | 3.465 | 2.097 |
| 2019-12 | 3.598 | 3.454 | 2.061 |
| 2020-01 | 3.605 | 3.466 | 1.992 |
| 2020-02 | 3.776 | 3.465 | 2.009 |
| 2020-03 | 3.877 | 3.718 | 2.174 |
| 2020-04 | 7.432 | 7.516 | 4.616 |
| 2020-05 | 10.614 | 10.859 | 6.646 |
| 2020-06 | 13.411 | 12.842 | 8.108 |
| 2020-07 | 12.267 | 11.046 | 7.077 |
| 2020-08 | 10.73 | 9.202 | 6.026 |
| 2020-09 | 8.989 | 8.436 | 5.319 |
| 2020-10 | 7.514 | 7.523 | 4.725 |
| 2020-11 | 6.918 | 7.148 | 4.563 |
| 2020-12 | 6.666 | 6.717 | 4.303 |
| 2021-01 | 6.685 | 6.53 | 4.18 |
| 2021-02 | 6.624 | 6.275 | 4.003 |
| 2021-03 | 6.538 | 6.08 | 3.929 |
| 2021-04 | 6.288 | 6.089 | 3.841 |
| 2021-05 | 6.197 | 6.07 | 3.702 |
| 2021-06 | 6.18 | 5.966 | 3.585 |
| 2021-07 | 6.068 | 5.659 | 3.338 |
| 2021-08 | 5.661 | 5.341 | 3.108 |
| 2021-09 | 5.225 | 5.046 | 2.865 |
| 2021-10 | 4.979 | 4.759 | 2.693 |
| 2021-11 | 4.752 | 4.476 | 2.557 |
| 2021-12 | 4.674 | 4.179 | 2.414 |
| 2022-01 | 4.483 | 4.032 | 2.364 |
| 2022-02 | 4.225 | 3.893 | 2.298 |
| 2022-03 | 3.946 | 3.8 | 2.17 |
| 2022-04 | 3.929 | 3.654 | 2.063 |
| 2022-05 | 3.864 | 3.555 | 1.969 |
| 2022-06 | 4.191 | 3.528 | 2.062 |
| 2022-07 | 4.246 | 3.497 | 2.088 |
| 2022-08 | 4.273 | 3.503 | 2.104 |
| 2022-09 | 4.016 | 3.427 | 2.015 |
| 2022-10 | 3.88 | 3.45 | 1.999 |
| 2022-11 | 4.039 | 3.445 | 2.051 |
| 2022-12 | 4.05 | 3.485 | 2.106 |
| 2023-01 | 4.151 | 3.465 | 2.119 |
| 2023-02 | 4.073 | 3.483 | 2.106 |
| 2023-03 | 4.004 | 3.514 | 2.134 |
| 2023-04 | 4.097 | 3.482 | 2.135 |
| 2023-05 | 4.162 | 3.502 | 2.162 |
| 2023-06 | 4.335 | 3.493 | 2.157 |
| 2023-07 | 4.239 | 3.549 | 2.185 |
| 2023-08 | 4.317 | 3.568 | 2.24 |
| 2023-09 | 4.391 | 3.626 | 2.295 |
| 2023-10 | 4.785 | 3.661 | 2.303 |
| 2023-11 | 5.031 | 3.66 | 2.278 |
| 2023-12 | 4.918 | 3.682 | 2.261 |
| 2024-01 | 4.393 | 3.682 | 2.232 |
| 2024-02 | 4.267 | 3.705 | 2.241 |
| 2024-03 | 4.514 | 3.693 | 2.221 |
| 2024-04 | 4.593 | 3.71 | 2.272 |
| 2024-05 | 4.67 | 3.749 | 2.312 |
| 2024-06 | 4.658 | 3.839 | 2.425 |
| 2024-07 | 5.01 | 3.959 | 2.493 |
| 2024-08 | 5.33 | 4.01 | 2.588 |
| 2024-09 | 5.274 | 3.998 | 2.572 |
| 2024-10 | 5.168 | 3.947 | 2.614 |
| 2024-11 | 4.78 | 3.984 | 2.594 |
| 2024-12 | 4.787 | 3.986 | 2.602 |
| 2025-01 | 4.75 | 3.974 | 2.507 |
| 2025-02 | 5.3 | 3.924 | 2.522 |
| 2025-03 | 5.661 | 3.965 | 2.635 |
| 2025-04 | 5.809 | 4.031 | 2.77 |
| 2025-05 | 5.341 | 4.06 | 2.837 |
| 2025-06 | 4.894 | 4.044 | 2.729 |
| 2025-07 | 5.058 | 4.058 | 2.772 |
| 2025-08 | 5.192 | 4.057 | 2.73 |
| 2025-09 | 5.772 | 4.133 | 2.923 |
| 2025-10 | 5.811 | 4.183 | 2.974 |
| 2025-11 | 5.796 | 4.275 | 3.074 |
| 2025-12 | 5.57 | 4.259 | 3.059 |
| 2026-01 | 5.656 | 4.262 | 3.092 |
| 2026-02 | 5.772 | 4.237 | 3.103 |
| 2026-03 | 5.607 | 4.215 | 3.057 |
| 2026-04 | 5.503 | 4.171 | 3.003 |
| 2026-05 | 5.553 | 4.119 | 2.943 |
| 2026-06 | 5.698 | 4.061 | 2.859 |
Show the numbers (by major, 2024)
| major | unemployment % |
|---|---|
| Computer Engineering | 7.783 |
| Fine Arts | 7.655 |
| Computer Science | 6.992 |
| English Language | 6.14 |
| Information Systems & Management | 5.979 |
| Mathematics | 5.767 |
| Commercial Art & Graphic Design | 5.743 |
| Business Analytics | 5.034 |
| Marketing | 4.399 |
| Mechanical Engineering | 4.364 |
| Overall | 4.211 |
| Communications | 3.856 |
| Finance | 2.758 |
| Accounting | 2.553 |
| Civil Engineering | 2.256 |
| Construction Services | 2.184 |
| Nursing | 2.147 |
| Elementary Education | 1.18 |
By job
Job postings in AI-exposed vs less exposed fields (US)
Indeed postings on 9 Oct 2026 (Feb 2020 = 100): software development 78, marketing 75, customer service 87, against nursing 112, construction 129, loading and stocking 109, all postings 104. But banking (106), admin (96) and accounting (105), also AI-exposed, are near or above all postings.
Caveat. Postings fell after the 2022 hiring boom for many reasons (interest rates, over-hiring, the end of pandemic hiring). The 'exposed' grouping is ours, not Indeed's. Postings are not hires.
Show the numbers
| date | Software Development | Banking & Finance | Marketing | Administrative Assistance | Customer Service | Accounting | Nursing | Construction | Loading & Stocking | All US postings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-01-01 | 212.98 | 174.5 | 175.38 | 177.04 | 140.23 | 189.6 | 175.68 | 160.14 | 188.54 | 157.27 |
| 2022-02-01 | 225.14 | 177.92 | 180.9 | 179.68 | 139.05 | 196.11 | 174.91 | 161.75 | 188.98 | 157.52 |
| 2022-03-01 | 233.52 | 186.44 | 185.63 | 183.57 | 139.59 | 205.27 | 175.95 | 167.23 | 187.93 | 160.4 |
| 2022-04-01 | 225.61 | 186.63 | 184.11 | 184.67 | 140.21 | 213.3 | 173.36 | 172.17 | 185.4 | 161.11 |
| 2022-05-01 | 223.47 | 187.89 | 174.7 | 181.04 | 136.84 | 198.25 | 169.28 | 169.7 | 186.25 | 160.26 |
| 2022-06-01 | 224.85 | 186.58 | 171.14 | 181.75 | 135.89 | 201.59 | 170.39 | 171.41 | 186.89 | 160.06 |
| 2022-07-01 | 211.28 | 182.51 | 161.15 | 176.55 | 132.5 | 200.03 | 168.37 | 170.58 | 180.59 | 157.26 |
| 2022-08-01 | 194.17 | 176.78 | 151.45 | 171.53 | 129.34 | 207.88 | 170.39 | 169.47 | 173.9 | 154.67 |
| 2022-09-01 | 180.3 | 167.19 | 141.82 | 168.91 | 127.24 | 205.76 | 167.77 | 170.57 | 174.26 | 151.97 |
| 2022-10-01 | 168.08 | 159.03 | 135.21 | 167.51 | 126.98 | 198.32 | 167.8 | 169.02 | 170.83 | 149.36 |
| 2022-11-01 | 155.07 | 150.93 | 128.39 | 165.81 | 127.13 | 194.44 | 167.05 | 172.51 | 163.92 | 147.73 |
| 2022-12-01 | 142.35 | 143.07 | 121.92 | 163.5 | 123.88 | 190.98 | 169.59 | 170.15 | 157.59 | 146.47 |
| 2023-01-01 | 130.27 | 136.55 | 115.39 | 159.87 | 116.6 | 185.21 | 170.89 | 169.27 | 155.3 | 142.57 |
| 2023-02-01 | 121.15 | 131.52 | 110.04 | 155.49 | 114.43 | 177.78 | 168.07 | 166.6 | 148.24 | 139.15 |
| 2023-03-01 | 105.95 | 122.17 | 100.73 | 150.15 | 110.42 | 167.04 | 164.1 | 161.38 | 139 | 134.21 |
| 2023-04-01 | 99.51 | 116.07 | 99.15 | 149.56 | 107.85 | 153.69 | 162.3 | 160.97 | 136.07 | 135.55 |
| 2023-05-01 | 98.2 | 114.51 | 99.11 | 146.48 | 108.89 | 151.96 | 160.47 | 162.52 | 136.51 | 136.15 |
| 2023-06-01 | 94.03 | 109.53 | 94.03 | 143.14 | 109.05 | 148.37 | 156.92 | 163.73 | 132.96 | 133.7 |
| 2023-07-01 | 82.59 | 107.94 | 90.04 | 137.8 | 106.27 | 144.17 | 157.53 | 158.54 | 128.47 | 130.24 |
| 2023-08-01 | 81.51 | 106.5 | 89.12 | 135.58 | 103.9 | 154.41 | 155.85 | 159.38 | 127.15 | 129.41 |
| 2023-09-01 | 78.64 | 103.28 | 87.77 | 134.24 | 105.41 | 151.48 | 153.63 | 158.79 | 124.55 | 127.74 |
| 2023-10-01 | 75.09 | 100.41 | 86.15 | 130.75 | 103.72 | 147.19 | 151.83 | 157.86 | 123.86 | 125.6 |
| 2023-11-01 | 74.16 | 100.45 | 85.76 | 127.11 | 102.69 | 146.48 | 151.62 | 154.16 | 124.39 | 124.35 |
| 2023-12-01 | 72.44 | 92.86 | 84.81 | 124.19 | 101.19 | 145.69 | 146.11 | 144.83 | 117.21 | 121.87 |
| 2024-01-01 | 72.58 | 93.57 | 83.72 | 121.94 | 98.92 | 142.37 | 140 | 142.63 | 113.4 | 120.36 |
| 2024-02-01 | 71.08 | 93.25 | 81.85 | 121.44 | 98.24 | 139.69 | 134.81 | 140.02 | 114.96 | 118.16 |
| 2024-03-01 | 70.82 | 94.75 | 80.84 | 122.68 | 97.23 | 137.77 | 135.12 | 141 | 113.27 | 118.02 |
| 2024-04-01 | 70.7 | 96.84 | 80.96 | 122.68 | 97.33 | 120.1 | 133.05 | 139.29 | 111.86 | 119.02 |
| 2024-05-01 | 69.2 | 96.44 | 80.78 | 119.64 | 96.06 | 118.38 | 129.87 | 135.22 | 110.2 | 117.27 |
| 2024-06-01 | 70.15 | 97.1 | 79.85 | 117.26 | 93.02 | 118.85 | 129.8 | 130.46 | 106.95 | 114.8 |
| 2024-07-01 | 70.08 | 93.54 | 79.71 | 115.81 | 92.79 | 116.96 | 128.53 | 128.77 | 110.24 | 113.42 |
| 2024-08-01 | 69.73 | 92 | 79.72 | 114.68 | 94.92 | 124.28 | 126.27 | 127.09 | 109.52 | 114.3 |
| 2024-09-01 | 68.56 | 92.08 | 79.91 | 112.3 | 90.3 | 132.26 | 123.03 | 125.5 | 107.07 | 112.35 |
| 2024-10-01 | 69.19 | 94.03 | 80.99 | 111.76 | 90.24 | 131.38 | 123.89 | 126.05 | 108.27 | 112.31 |
| 2024-11-01 | 68.58 | 92.42 | 77.34 | 107.14 | 88.39 | 127.69 | 119.54 | 125.42 | 101.94 | 108.55 |
| 2024-12-01 | 67.45 | 92.8 | 78.18 | 110.39 | 89.25 | 129.94 | 119.78 | 127.33 | 103.01 | 110.29 |
| 2025-01-01 | 67.52 | 93.59 | 82.38 | 109.81 | 87.5 | 127.92 | 119.95 | 130.85 | 104.72 | 110.65 |
| 2025-02-01 | 66.77 | 95.64 | 80.81 | 106.26 | 85.5 | 123.3 | 119.53 | 128.51 | 107.35 | 109.54 |
| 2025-03-01 | 62.58 | 94.99 | 78.52 | 103.68 | 85.17 | 121.17 | 117.49 | 124.33 | 112.25 | 108.81 |
| 2025-04-01 | 62.57 | 94.56 | 76.43 | 99.4 | 83.34 | 101.32 | 116.99 | 120.83 | 99.46 | 106.77 |
| 2025-05-01 | 63.19 | 92 | 74.22 | 98.81 | 82.5 | 97.64 | 116.24 | 117.57 | 96.27 | 105.85 |
| 2025-06-01 | 64.08 | 95.01 | 74.38 | 99.16 | 81.37 | 100.64 | 116.09 | 119.05 | 96.15 | 105.51 |
| 2025-07-01 | 65.35 | 96.97 | 74.48 | 96.99 | 83.75 | 100.58 | 115.59 | 121.24 | 95.5 | 104.82 |
| 2025-08-01 | 66.2 | 97.53 | 76.1 | 97.54 | 83.98 | 111.81 | 115.39 | 122.36 | 97.81 | 104.75 |
| 2025-09-01 | 65.02 | 97.84 | 77.27 | 95.57 | 88.69 | 112.41 | 115.38 | 123.43 | 99.77 | 103.9 |
| 2025-10-01 | 64.28 | 95.65 | 78.32 | 94.59 | 88.7 | 110.51 | 112.83 | 121.61 | 97.58 | 101.32 |
| 2025-11-01 | 65.78 | 96.66 | 77.8 | 93.29 | 86.89 | 111.21 | 112.15 | 122.6 | 96.43 | 100.36 |
| 2025-12-01 | 66.64 | 96.32 | 79.88 | 95.65 | 88.73 | 110.02 | 110.75 | 128.84 | 102.62 | 102.24 |
| 2026-01-01 | 67.22 | 99.21 | 79.36 | 96.23 | 90.46 | 111.41 | 109.74 | 139.14 | 102.19 | 103.14 |
| 2026-02-01 | 69.42 | 102.59 | 78.41 | 98.03 | 92.39 | 114.58 | 109.28 | 135.95 | 103.32 | 103.63 |
| 2026-03-01 | 70.71 | 103.11 | 75.87 | 99.16 | 92.6 | 118.56 | 108.1 | 136.51 | 106.83 | 105.39 |
| 2026-04-01 | 72.76 | 101.85 | 74.29 | 94.14 | 89.66 | 107.63 | 104.24 | 121.72 | 105.54 | 102.24 |
| 2026-05-01 | 72.94 | 103.36 | 74.22 | 94.21 | 90.22 | 94.34 | 102.82 | 119.72 | 107.8 | 102.5 |
| 2026-06-01 | 73.41 | 99.01 | 74.32 | 92.53 | 87.23 | 92.4 | 100.16 | 117.39 | 106.19 | 100.07 |
| 2026-07-01 | 73.46 | 102.74 | 73.9 | 93.45 | 87.91 | 91.62 | 101.23 | 117.67 | 106.97 | 100.96 |
| 2026-08-01 | 75.15 | 105.18 | 75.49 | 95.16 | 88.52 | 88.65 | 103.94 | 121.39 | 109.96 | 101.98 |
| 2026-09-01 | 74.86 | 98.85 | 76.08 | 94.52 | 87.84 | 95.43 | 104.48 | 123.24 | 106.77 | 101.92 |
| 2026-10-01 | 78.26 | 106.32 | 75.52 | 95.95 | 87.56 | 104 | 110.06 | 129.65 | 110.25 | 103.78 |
| 2026-10-09 | 78.1 | 106.17 | 75.31 | 95.54 | 87.25 | 104.65 | 112.08 | 129.16 | 109.06 | 104.15 |
Young vs experienced workers in four jobs (US)
Not shown yet. The Stanford Digital Economy Lab / ADP payroll series for this chart is not shown while we ask for permission to republish it.
The dashboard breaks the same series out for software developers, customer service representatives, stock clerks and home health aides. See the original dashboard.
Official 10-year projection by AI exposure category (US)
The Bureau of Labor Statistics still projects job growth in every AI-exposure group to 2035. The most exposed group grows slowest (+2.0%).
Look up a single job, with its exposure and projection: check your job.
Caveat. Category totals are our sums of BLS occupation rows (formula in the data file). BLS says an exposure category 'is not a forecast of employment growth or decline'. Projections are forecasts, not outcomes.
Show the numbers
| exposure | occupations | jobs 2025 (k) | jobs 2035 (k) | change % | share of 2025 jobs % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low | 213 | 30,264.7 | 31,024.6 | 2.5 | 17.8 |
| Moderate | 206 | 44,651.3 | 47,425.6 | 6.2 | 26.2 |
| High | 206 | 42,142 | 43,466.6 | 3.1 | 24.8 |
| Very high | 206 | 53,209.2 | 54,267.7 | 2 | 31.3 |
What we can't chart yet
- A count of jobs replaced by AI. No source measures it, anywhere. Anyone quoting one is estimating.
- Yale's exposed-vs-control comparison with its uncertainty bands. The most rigorous view here. We use its employment figure in the tile above; the unemployment panel waits until we have confirmed its units with Yale.
- How people use AI over time (automate vs help). Anthropic's Economic Index changed its method between releases, so a single line would mix methods.
- Outcomes outside the US. The jobs data split by AI exposure is almost all American so far.
- Tech layoffs attributed to AI. The layoffs.fyi AI tracker counts cuts “the company or press attributed to AI”, a looser test than the employer naming AI. Worth reading; not charted here.
How this page works
Every number comes from a published source, read on the date shown under each chart. We cite and link every source; their charts and files are never copied; we redraw and tabulate their published numbers with citation. That includes the sources without an open licence (Challenger, the IMF, the WEF, California's CAIT, the New York Fed and Yale). Where we did arithmetic (a share, a category total), the chart says so.
Two charts are held back. T1 and J2 are for the Stanford Digital Economy Lab / ADP Canaries Dashboard. Stanford's site terms don't allow republishing without written permission, so we show none of its numbers while we ask for permission to republish them.
We label each chart by what it can show. An exposure estimate is about tasks, not jobs. A survey is what firms say. An announcement is a plan. Jobs data compares exposed and less exposed workers, but on its own it cannot say AI caused the difference.
Updates. We refresh the data monthly, after the layoff and claims releases, and re-read the summary at the top against the new numbers. Missing months stay visible as gaps.
- Challenger, Gray & Christmas: US job-cut announcements citing AI (Challenger, Gray & Christmas).
- U.S. Census Bureau: Business Trends and Outlook Survey (BTOS) - Data Downloads: National core questions, AI Core Questions (Original), AI Supplement tables.
- Eurostat (European Commission): Artificial intelligence by size class of enterprise (isoc_eb_ai); ICT usage and e-commerce in enterprises survey.
- International Labour Organization (ILO): Gmyrek, Berg, Kamiński et al. (2025) 'Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure', ILO Working Paper 140, doi:10.54394/HETP0387; and Gmyrek, Berg, Bescond (2023) 'Generative AI and jobs: A global analysis of potential effects on job quantity and quality', ILO Working Paper 96, doi:10.54394/FHEM8239.
- International Monetary Fund (IMF): Cazzaniga, Jaumotte, Li, Melina, Panton, Pizzinelli, Rockall, Tavares (2024), 'Gen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work', IMF Staff Discussion Note SDN/2024/001.
- World Economic Forum: World Economic Forum (2025), Future of Jobs Report 2025, Insight Report, January 2025 (ISBN 978-2-940631-90-2).
- California Policy Lab (University of California) with the California Employment Development Department and the Governor's Office: California AI-Unemployment Tracker (CAIT), monthly claims download.
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York: The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates.
- Indeed Hiring Lab: Indeed Job Postings Index (job_postings_tracker).
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections program: Artificial Intelligence (AI) exposure categories; 'AI exposure categories and 2025-35 employment projections' (XLSX).
- The Budget Lab at Yale: Tracking the Impact of AI on the Labor Market (AI Labor Market Tracker interactive), update of October 14, 2026.